LONDON — She’s the British official who’s good at knocking bankers’ heads together. He’s the twinkly-eyed Irishman who’s an old hand at navigating the twists and turns of EU policymaking.
Since Brexit they’ve not had much to do with each other.
But maybe — just maybe — an old flame is rekindling.
We’ll find out if there’s any chemistry on Wednesday. That’s when the U.K.’s Gwyneth Nurse and the EU’s John Berrigan discuss potential financial services cooperation. It’ll be only the second time the two sides have talked about the massively important sector since Britain’s departure from the bloc in January 2020.
Nobody needs reminding that the divorce caused quite a bit of bad blood — but Nurse and Berrigan are determined to help Brussels and London get it on.
And there’s wider significance. Given the importance of financial services to London and Brussels, it could even spell a broader thawing in post-Brexit relations — particularly as polls put the more EU-friendly Labour Party most likely to form a government after an election that must be before the end of January.
Vibe shift
Britain left the bloc without a deal covering financial services in 2020 and tensions over Northern Ireland left the relationship between the two sides at a tense stand-off for years.
Trust hit a low. But things have been hotting up since the U.K. and EU resolved problems on the Northern Ireland border last year. And that’s helped lift the mood on financial services, too.
Now, it’s up to Nurse and Berrigan to add to the vibe shift, according to diplomats, officials and lobbyists on both sides of the English Channel, who were granted anonymity to speak to POLITICO because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.
The European Commission will play host to the EU-U.K. discussion forum in Brussels.
The forum won’t lead to a sudden rapprochement, especially with elections looming on both sides ― the EU’s one comes first at the start of June ― but just having a proper chat is a step forward.
It’s about creating the right feels so top officials can speak openly with each other again.
Things will move slowly: After years of tension, it’s too early to even mention improving the City of London’s access to EU markets, which has been almost totally cut off, without jeopardizing the fragile relationship.
But by comparing notes in the talking shop, Brussels and London might find they have shared problems where they can work together, such as on greening the financial system, curtailing risks from artificial intelligence, or even preventing the next financial crash.
And although Brexit has been painted as an acrimonious divorce, there are still issues where it makes sense for the U.K. and EU to share custody. One such topic refers to how quickly shares are exchanged for cash, with Brussels hopeful London will wait around to speed up the process, rather than aligning with the faster-moving U.S.
If both sides can see eye-to-eye on the technical topics, it may mean that eventually, when it’s not quite so painful, it could then be easier to have those bigger conversations further down the line — like whether the U.K. will ever get prized access to EU markets.
And both sides hope Nurse and Berrigan, who will lead the talks, could really hit it off.
Looking for: financial services nerd
They’re definitely each other’s type on paper.
Both are career technocrats. Both do things by the book. Both are economic liberals. And both have a nerdy love for financial rules.
Diplomats think they can geek out together, amid an agenda which covers the technical, but important, issues facing financial services in Europe.
While Nurse and Berrigan have met before, this time it’s different as they’ll be locking eyes across the negotiating table for the first time.
Nurse is director general for financial services at the U.K. Treasury, and Berrigan director general at the European Commission’s financial-services department (DG FISMA).
Nurse is not as naturally warm as her predecessor Katharine Braddick. And Berrigan is less of a showman than his former boss, Olivier Guersent.
Neither of them suffer fools.
That might just suit them both — and could lead to deeper conversations, delving into sexy topics such as global bank capital standards, and whether the EU will follow the U.K. and U.S. into delaying the important rules.
One test will be whether Berrigan and Nurse get on proper first-name terms, because Berrigan goes by Sean. (Only his mom actually calls him John.)
And if things go really well, they could share in a real love affair: fries from the EU capital’s favorite chippy, Maison Antoine.